Human labor obsolete in 30 years?

Rice University computer scientist Moshe Vardi expects that within 30 years machines will be capable of doing almost any job that humans can. In anticipation of this development, he is asking his colleagues, "What will humans do?"

What will humans do?  Well, we'll. . . do something, I suppose.

Okay, so this isn't exactly a new question.  Many books, graphic novels and films attempt to answer this question - usually predicting a worst possible outcome.

From personal experience I can tell you the retirement I so looked forward to for so many years actually sucks.  Big time.  So I'm back to work and a lot happier.

Let's face it: retirement is an artificial construct.  Before the industrial revolution herded us into cities, separating us from extended family and traditional economic roles, there was no such thing as retirement per se.  People worked until they stopped working.  Not eight hour days, but as needed to keep the family fed and clothed - and to pay taxes.

Retirement at age 65 was a sop offered the labor unions of the small Germanic states to get them to agree to the formation of the larger German state in 1848.  Where did Prussian premier Otto von Bismark, the perpetrator of the 1st Reich, come up with the age of 65 for a state funded retirement?  Who knows, but I imagine it involved him bending over and dropping lederhosen.

So if in 30 years human labor will be obsolete, what will people do?  Or will only some forms of human labor be obsolete while others continue?  Will we all become artists and philosophers?  Or sedentary slobs?  (I vote for the later based on current evidence.)

Have a different vision?

Go for it, dude or dude-ette.  As a writer, the future of humanity is yours to play with.

*  *  *  *  *

When machines can do any job, what will humans do?

Human labor may be obsolete by 2045

Rice University computer scientist Moshe Vardi expects that within 30 years, machines will be capable of doing almost any job that a human can. In anticipation, he is asking his colleagues to consider the societal implications. Can the global economy adapt to greater than 50 percent unemployment? Will those out of work be content to live a life of leisure?

"We are approaching a time when machines will be able to outperform humans at almost any task," Vardi said. "I believe that society needs to confront this question before it is upon us: If machines are capable of doing almost any work humans can do, what will humans do?"

Vardi will address the issue in an 8 a.m. Sunday presentation, "Smart Robots and Their Impact on Society," at the AAAS annual meeting.

"The question I want to put forward is, 'Does the technology we are developing ultimately benefit mankind?'" Vardi said. He will present a body of evidence that suggests the pace of advancement in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) is increasing, even as existing robotic and AI technologies are eliminating a growing number of middle-class jobs and thereby driving up income inequality.

Vardi, a member of both the National Academy of Engineering and the National Academy of Science, is a Distinguished Service Professor and the Karen Ostrum George Professor of Computational Engineering at Rice, where he also directs Rice's Ken Kennedy Institute for Information Technology. Since 2008 he has served as the editor-in-chief of Communications of the ACM, the flagship publication of the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), one of the world's largest computational professional societies.

Vardi said some people believe that future advances in automation will ultimately benefit humans, just as automation has benefited society since the dawn of the industrial age.

"A typical answer is that if machines will do all our work, we will be free to pursue leisure activities," Vardi said. But even if the world economic system can be restructured to enable billions of people to live lives of leisure, Vardi questions whether it would benefit humanity.

"I do not find this a promising future, as I do not find the prospect of leisure-only life appealing. I believe that work is essential to human well-being," he said.

"Humanity is about to face perhaps its greatest challenge ever, which is finding meaning in life after the end of 'In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread,'" Vardi said. "We need to rise to the occasion and meet this challenge" before human labor becomes obsolete, he said.

In addition to dual membership in the National Academies, Vardi is a Guggenheim fellow and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the European Academy of Sciences and the Academia Europa. He is a fellow of the ACM, the American Association for Artificial Intelligence and the Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). His numerous honors include the Southeastern Universities Research Association's 2013 Distinguished Scientist Award, the 2011 IEEE Computer Society Harry H. Goode Award, the 2008 ACM Presidential Award, the 2008 Blaise Pascal Medal for Computer Science by the European Academy of Sciences and the 2000 Goedel Prize for outstanding papers in the area of theoretical computer science.

Vardi joined Rice's faculty in 1993. His research centers upon the application of logic to computer science, database systems, complexity theory, multi-agent systems and specification and verification of hardware and software. He is the author or co-author of more than 500 technical articles and of two books, "Reasoning About Knowledge" and "Finite Model Theory and Its Applications."


Story Source:  materials provided by Rice University. "When machines can do any job, what will humans do? Human labor may be obsolete by 2045." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 13 February 2016. 

Read More

What is important to top scientists? Fame? Fortune? Honors?

What values are important to scientists?

While many people are marking today scrutinizing the virtues of their Valentines, researchers have revealed a first-of-its-kind study on the virtues and values of scientists. The study surveyed nearly 500 astronomers, biologists, chemists, physicists and earth scientists to identify the core traits of exemplary scientists.

The study, presented at the meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, D.C., surveyed nearly 500 astronomers, biologists, chemists, physicists and earth scientists to identify the core traits of exemplary scientists.

The subjects selected were scientists who had been honored by their respective national organization or society, and the results show that above all, these researchers hold honesty and curiosity in the highest regard, said Robert Pennock, a professor in MSU's Lyman Briggs College and leader of the study.

"If you're not curious, you're probably not a real scientist," he said. "The goal that you have is to find out something true about the world, regardless of what your preferred hypothesis might be. Your real drive is to find what is revealed by the data. This is absolutely essential in being a scientist."

If someone is dishonest and going to the extreme of faking data, that person is not really a scientist in the true sense, Pennock added.

Those surveyed, using a scale from zero to ten, were asked to rate attentiveness, collaborative, courage, curiosity, honesty, humility to evidence, meticulousness, objectivity, perseverance and skepticism with regard to their importance for scientific research.

Once they scored each trait, the scientists were asked how each characteristic is or isn't expressed in science. The subjects also were asked to identify the three most-important virtues.

The study revealed a tacit moral code in scientific culture -- one that most researchers hope to be able to pass on to their students, Pennock said.

"The results will have some implications for teaching science," said Pennock, who conducted the study with Jon Miller of the University of Michigan. "Our teaching shouldn't stop with the content or science processes. Cultivating the values -- like honesty and curiosity -- that underlie science should be a part of science education."

Underscoring the importance of instilling desirable traits in the next generation of scientists, the study tackled how exemplary scientists preserve and transmit these values to their students.

A whopping 94 percent of scientists believe scientific values and virtues can be learned. The number dropped a bit, though, when asked if these traits are actually being transmitted to current graduate students.

"It's encouraging that 4 out of 5 scientists believe that their values are being embraced by the next generation of students," Pennock said. "However, it's somewhat troubling that 22 percent of the scientists surveyed see these valued traits eroding a bit."

With stories of falsified results making headlines, it's known that some scientists not only fail to achieve these ideals but directly violate them.

Science is a truth-seeking enterprise. Based on this study, researchers violating this unwritten code of conduct may not be scientists in the truest sense, Pennock said.

"Researchers who commit such misconduct are not merely violating some regulatory requirements, but they also are violating -- in a deep way -- what it means to be a scientist," he said.

Story Source:  Materials provided by Michigan State University. "What values are important to scientists?." ScienceDaily, 14 February 2016. 

Read More

Archaeologists unearth new evidence of Roman, medieval Leicester

Credit: University of Leicester  

Archaeologists excavate large areas of medieval and post-medieval
pitting in the backyards of properties running along Southgates.

Archaeologists from University of Leicester Archaeological Services (ULAS) have unearthed new evidence of Roman and medieval Leicester after recently completing the excavation of two areas at the former Southgates Bus Depot, on the corner of Southgates and Peacock Lane in the centre of Leicester.

Archaeologists, led by John Thomas and Mathew Morris of ULAS, have been investigating a series of medieval and post-medieval backyards dating from the 12th century through to the 16th century. These are likely to be associated with densely packed houses and shops which would have once fronted onto the important medieval street of Southgates.

Evidence recorded includes stone-lined pits (possibly storage pits or cisterns), rubbish pits, latrines, wells, boundary walls and a possible late 15th or 16th century cellar. Such activity, and the evidence carefully collected and recorded from it, will give important new insights into the lifestyles and industry of the people living along one of Leicester's principle medieval streets.

John Thomas said: "Having the chance to excavate in this part of Leicester is fantastic. Because of the historic nature of the modern city centre, archaeologists rarely get the opportunity to explore this part of the city. These excavations will provide important new insights into the character of the settlement and the inhabitants living in the southern half of the Roman and medieval town."

The project is funded by property developer Viridis and the University team has been working closely with them and their contractors WinVic to complete the archaeological investigation before construction of new student apartments begins.

The site lies at the heart of Leicester's historic core, close to significant Roman and medieval sites such as the Roman forum and the Jewry Wall Roman public baths as well as the site of Grey Friars, the medieval Franciscan friary where the remains of King Richard III (d.1485) were discovered by University archaeologists in 2012.

Once the medieval archaeology was painstakingly recorded and removed, evidence of Leicester's Roman past was slowly revealed. The junction of two Roman streets has been identified. These have thick, cambered gravel surfaces with drainage gullies dug to either side. A number of large stone and timber buildings, and boundary walls, dating from the 2nd century through to the 4th century have been identified running along the sides of the streets.

In some areas the Roman archaeology has been badly disturbed by later activity but elsewhere Roman remains are very well preserved with intact floors and rare fragments of wall still surviving above floor level. The broken remains of a mosaic pavement has been found in one building, whilst pieces of painted wall plaster still survived on the walls in another.

This evidence will allow the archaeologists to reconstruct what these buildings might have looked like. A wide array of artefacts have been recovered during the excavation, including coins, fine table ware, a copper spoon, game counters, a number of bone hair pins and other pieces of jewellery. This suggests that Roman activity in the area was predominately domestic in nature with some industrial activity going on in the vicinity in the later Roman period.

Mathew Morris added: "This part of Roman Leicester is very poorly understood because there has been little previous archaeological investigation in the vicinity. One of the Roman streets found on the site has never been seen before in Leicester and isn't on any of our plans of the Roman city. This is a significant find and raises exciting new questions about the layout of the early Roman town and how it evolved through the Roman period. It also means that the excavations are exploring three different insulae or blocks within the Roman street system. So far, there appears to be contrasting types of occupation in the different areas and this will give terrific new insights into life in Leicester during the Roman period."

For a list of current research in Leicester:  Leicester Archaeology

Story Source: Materials provided by University of Leicester. "Archaeologists unearth new evidence of Roman, medieval Leicester." ScienceDaily, 10 December 2015.

Read More

How the lives of Georgian gaolbirds and highwaymen shaped modern Britain

Writing historical fiction requires solid research of available materials and databases.  The key word here is available.  

So news of a new publicly accessible database that allows an author to research a very interesting past era is priceless almost beyond words.  

I expect some exciting fiction to come out of this announcement.

Here's the story, with a link to the source in the attribution.

*  *  *  *  *

London Lives, a landmark project led by Professor Bob Shoemaker from the University of Sheffield and Professor Tim Hitchcock from the University of Sussex, has uncovered a mass of extraordinary new evidence which reveals how the lives of thousands of 18th-century poor and criminal Londoners helped shape modern Britain.

Based on evidence made available in a publicly available database, the study sheds new light on the everyday lives of thieves, prostitutes, vagrants, highwaymen, con-men, paupers and jailbirds, revealing how their daily fight for survival led to the making of modern Britain.

The story of "Mary Ellenor, 

1684-1708,  

Servant and 

Murderer of her Bastard Child"

from the London Lives archive.

The evidence shows that paupers used their limited written and oral skills to cajole and embarrass parish elites, leading to the creation of a more comprehensive welfare system. Meanwhile the courtroom strategies of street robbers laid the foundations for the rise of the adversarial trial -- a legal system used by common law countries such as the UK and US which allows legal representation to both parties.

Criminals who illustrated the failure of justice through constant escapes and charismatic leadership forced the state to build a new world of prisons but also gave hope to some in the wider working classes, according to the historians.

Professor Bob Shoemaker from the University of Sheffield's Department of History, said: "The London Lives project has uncovered a fascinating new insight into lives and experiences of hundreds of thousands of Londoners in the 18th century. They found themselves submerged in poverty or prosecuted for crime but the way they responded forced the authorities to fundamentally transform social policy and the criminal justice system.

"The study shows that celebrity highwaymen, prison escapees, expert manipulators of the poor relief system, lone mothers and vagrants played the system to the best of their ability in order to survive. In their acts of desperation, the poor and criminal exercised a profound and effective form of agency that changed the system itself."

Co-author Tim Hitchcock from the University of Sussex said: "We began by digitizing the records of the Old Bailey, London's central criminal court, and the records of poor relief and other criminal courts held at London's Metropolitan Archives. We then created a website which allowed us to chart the experiences of everyday Londoners who found themselves submerged in poverty or prosecuted for crime.

"What we uncovered was extraordinary: thieves, paupers, prostitutes and celebrity highwaymen, who, again and again, through their cunning, courage, and resourcefulness, forced the pace of change in the evolution of the criminal justice system and the system of poor relief."

The database assembled in order to conduct the study can be accessed online in a database created by Sheffield's Humanities Research Institute. It is available via http://www.londonlives.org.

Link:  London Lives

Story Source:  Materials provided by University of Sheffield. "Georgian jailbirds and celebrity highwaymen shaped modern Britain." ScienceDaily, 29 January 2016.

Read More

Is suicide contagious? Looks like it.

One in 10 suicide-attempt risk

among friends, relatives of people

who die by suicide

People bereaved by the sudden death of a friend or family member are 65 percent more likely to attempt suicide if the deceased died by suicide than if they died by natural causes. This brings the absolute risk up to 1 in 10, reveals new research.

The researchers studied 3,432 UK university staff and students aged 18-40 who had been bereaved, to examine the specific impacts associated with bereavement by suicide. The results are published in BMJ Open.

As well as the increased risk of suicide attempt, those bereaved by suicide were also 80% more likely to drop out of education or work. In total, 8% of the people bereaved by suicide had dropped out of an educational course or a job since the death.

"Our results highlight the profound impact that suicide might have on friends and family members," says study author Dr Alexandra Pitman (UCL Psychiatry). "However, these outcomes are by no means inevitable. If you have been bereaved by suicide, you should know that are not alone and support is available. There is a guide called Help is at Hand (available in England), written by people affected by suicide, which offers emotional and practical advice as well as information on organisations that can offer further support.

"We know that people can find it difficult to know what to say to someone who has recently been bereaved. However, saying something is often better than saying nothing, and simple gestures like offering practical help with day-to-day activities can mean a lot. For example, when a colleague bereaved by suicide returns to work after compassionate leave then it could be helpful to ask how they are and offer to help them with their workload. Employers should be aware of the significant impact that suicide bereavement has on people's working lives and make adjustments to help their staff return to work."

The study also found that people who had been bereaved by suicide tended to perceive more social stigma around the death. When the results were adjusted for perceived social stigma to reflect this, the significant differences in suicide attempts and occupational functioning disappeared. While further research is required, this suggests that addressing the social stigma attached to suicide bereavement might be one way to help to limit its impact on people's lives.

"British people can be very uncomfortable talking about death, and suicide in particular is often perceived as a taboo subject," explains Dr Pitman. "However, avoiding the subject can make a bereaved person feel very isolated and stigmatized, and sometimes even blamed for the death. People bereaved by suicide should not be made to feel in any way responsible, and should be treated with the same compassion as people bereaved by any other cause. Suicide is a complex issue and there is often no simple explanation for why someone chooses to take their own life. Although one often hears people refer to a relationship break-up or a redundancy as the trigger for a suicide, this is far too simplistic and in reality it is often a culmination of different life events rather than one individual 'cause'."

Previous studies have shown family history of suicide to be a risk factor for suicide attempt, so risk assessments in hospitals, prisons and social care settings are designed to take this into account. However, the new study suggests that a history of suicide among non-blood relatives and friends should also be considered when assessing suicide risk. Asking about the impact of a suicidal loss will also give professionals a sense of how it has affected their day-to-day functioning, and whether feeling stigmatized has prevented them from accessing help.

Related stories:

• How homicide spreads like an infectious disease
• How Violence or Trauma Effects Your Characters
• How Visiting High Crime Neighborhood Effects People
• Parent's Suicide Attempts Increases Suicide Risk in Their Children
• Perfectionism a Major Factor in Suicide
• Suicide Rates for Older Adults Up 40%
• The Writer's Responsibility When Writing About Suicide

Story Source:  Materials provided by University College London.  Alexandra L Pitman, David P J Osborn, Khadija Rantell, Michael B King. Bereavement by suicide as a risk factor for suicide attempt: a cross-sectional national UK-wide study of 3432 young bereaved adults. BMJ Open, 2016

Read More